On November 14th, 2017, Mr. Stephen Huang and Mr. Levi Zou, CEO and GM of Wuxi National Development Metal Resources respectively, received an interview by Bloomberg News, during which they had in-depth discussions regarding whether the current weak real estate market in China would become a risk towards copper price in 2018.
Mr. Stephen Huang believes that, “Construction, housing are the biggest contributors to China’s copper demand, the growth in China’s refined copper demand to ease next year to 2.5 percent from 3.5 percent in 2017, as the world’s biggest user of the metal tightens property curbs to leech excess leverage from itseconomy. But the trader remains cautiously optimistic on prices because of improving conditions in North America and Europe and probable cuts to Japanese exports ahead of the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo.”
Mr. Zou sees that copper in London averaging between $6,700 and $6,800 a metric ton in 2018 and its not far from a current level of $6,886 a ton and above an average this year of around $6,105 a ton.
The whole news report is as below:
The downturn in China’s property market is the biggest risk to a near two-year rally in copper prices,according to a new state-backed trading venture run by a 29-year industry veteran.
Shanghai-based ASK Resources Ltd. expects growth in China’s refined copper demand to ease next year to 2.5 percent from 3.5 percent in 2017, as the world’s biggest user of the metal tightens property curbs to leech excess leverage from its economy, Chief Executive Officer Stephen Huang said in an interview last week.
“Construction, housing are the biggest contributors to China’s copper demand,” Huang said at ASK’s offices in Shanghai.
“Infrastructure building is still there, but the housing sector is a different story now. It is relatively contained.”Still, the trader remains cautiously optimistic on prices because of improving conditions in North America and Europe and probable cuts to Japanese exports ahead of the 2020 Olympics in Tokyo.
It expects prices to remain relatively flat next year, after a 25 percent rally so far in 2017.
Construction constitutes more than 40 percent of China’s demand for the metal used in pipes and wires, and the nation in turn accounts for about half the world’s total. September saw new home sales post their first year-on-year decline since 2014.
“The property market has entered into a downturn, ASK’s managing director, Levi Zou, said in the interview. “People are saying the downturn will be as long as the upturn. It’s definitely putting a question mark on China’s copper demand next year, and it’s a big concern to the market.”
CEO Huang and the municipal government of Wuxi in Jiangsu province set up the trading company two months ago, after Huang left Arc Resources Co., a copper trader in Hong Kong that he’d founded in 2010. Huang began his career in the industry at the derivatives unit of French bank Credit Lyonnais in 1988.
Zou said he sees copper in London averaging between $6,700 and $6,800 a metric ton in 2018, after Chile’s Codelco, the world’s largest copper producer, raised the premium it charges to deliver metal to European customers for the first time in four years, amid signs manufacturing is strengthening in the region.
That’s not far from a current level of $6,886 a ton and above an average this year of around $6,105 a ton. The metal has rallied from a seven-year low of $4,318 hit in January 2016 due to supply disruptions and improved demand in China.
“There won’t be any more massive builds of new houses,” said Huang. “While the Chinese economy will grow in a stable way, some aspects will slow down the nation’s copper demand and offset the potential global supply deficit.”
- From: Bloomberg News
